Trust Score 84/100, rank #3 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 99% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #2–12). Gold standard · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 96th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 78th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.9 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 9/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10 | 4.9 | D+4 |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2018 | 45 | 3.6 | R+1.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | 5.7 | D+5.6 |
| 2022 | 12 | 1.9 | even |
23 polls this cycle; its polls have been 1 points more Republican than other polls of the same races (raw gap R+1.2, adjusted for its 20 polls); spread 1.01× what its sample sizes predict.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 | D+6.8 |
| 10-01 | Iowa Governor | Sand 52, Lahn 41 | D+3.6 |
| 10-01 | Ohio Governor | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45 | R+0.7 |
| 10-01 | Alaska Governor | Kreiss-Tomkins 52, Wilson 48 | |
| 09-30 | Kansas Senate | Hamilton 45, Marshall 45 | R+0.6 |
| 09-30 | Kansas Governor | Holscher 44, Masterson 49 | R+1.5 |
| 09-24 | Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 49 | R+6.4 |
| 09-24 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 | D+2.1 |
| 09-24 | Maine Governor | Pingree 47, Charles 34 | D+2.3 |
| 09-24 | Michigan Governor | Benson 48, James 43 | R+3.1 |
| 09-24 | New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 50, Sununu 45 | R+0.7 |
| 09-24 | New Hampshire Governor | Warmington 41, Ayotte 52 | R+1.5 |
| 09-24 | Pennsylvania Governor | Shapiro 58, Garrity 38 | R+5.8 |
| 09-15 | Trump approval | Approve 38, Disapprove 59 | |
| 09-15 | Generic ballot | Democrats 51, Republicans 43 | |
| 08-21 | Pennsylvania Governor | Shapiro 55, Garrity 39 | D+5.6 |
| 06-28 | Ohio Senate | Brown 47, Husted 50 | R+7.6 |
| 06-28 | Ohio Governor | Acton 47, Ramaswamy 47 | R+2.6 |
| 06-27 | Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 | even |
| 06-27 | Iowa Senate | Turek 46, Hinson 48 | R+3.5 |
| 06-27 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 44, Abbott 51 | D+1.1 |
| 06-27 | Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 47 | R+6.1 |
| 06-27 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 | R+5.6 |
States polled: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage · Siena College
Open The New York Times/Siena College in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
The New York Times/Siena College is rated A+ in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 84 of 100, rank 3 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.1 points on average, against 4.9 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 69% of races.
Historically, The New York Times/Siena College's misses leaned D+1.3 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 1 points more Republican than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
23 polls in Crosstab's data, including Texas Governor, Iowa Governor, Ohio Governor, Alaska Governor, Kansas Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.