James Talarico Democrat · Senate
Ken Paxton Republican · Senate
Gina Hinojosa Democrat · Governor
Greg Abbott Republican · Governor
| District | Incumbent | Crosstab rating | Dem. chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | Nathaniel Moran (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| TX-02 | Dan Crenshaw (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-03 | Keith Self (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-04 | Pat Fallon (R) | Safe Republican | 1% |
| TX-05 | Lance Gooden (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| TX-06 | Jake Ellzey (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-08 | Morgan Luttrell (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| TX-09 | Al Green (D) | Likely Republican | 6% |
| TX-10 | Michael McCaul (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-11 | August Pfluger (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| TX-12 | Craig Goldman (R) | Safe Republican | 2% |
| TX-13 | Ronny Jackson (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| TX-14 | Randy Weber (R) | Safe Republican | 2% |
| TX-15 | Monica De La Cruz (R) | Likely Republican | 11% |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-17 | Pete Sessions (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-19 | Jodey Arrington (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-21 | Chip Roy (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| TX-22 | Troy Nehls (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-23 | VACANT (Gonzales) (R) | Leans Republican | 21% |
| TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne (R) | Likely Republican | 18% |
| TX-25 | Roger Williams (R) | Safe Republican | 2% |
| TX-26 | Brandon Gill (R) | Safe Republican | 2% |
| TX-27 | Michael Cloud (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar (D) | Toss-up | 48% |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-30 | Jasmine Crockett (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-31 | John Carter (R) | Safe Republican | 3% |
| TX-32 | Julie Johnson (D) | Likely Republican | 11% |
| TX-33 | Marc Veasey (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | Toss-up | 47% |
| TX-35 | Greg Casar (D) | Toss-up | 48% |
| TX-36 | Brian Babin (R) | Safe Republican | 1% |
| TX-37 | Lloyd Doggett (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| TX-38 | Wesley Hunt (R) | Safe Republican | 5% |
| YouGov | B- | 74 polls | leans D+1 |
| Emerson College | A+ | 48 polls | leans R+1.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | A+ | 39 polls | leans even |
| Quantus Insights | New | 32 polls | leans R+3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | C | 31 polls | leans even |
| InsiderAdvantage | C | 31 polls | leans R+1.1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | B | 28 polls | leans D+0.6 |
| Marist College | B+ | 27 polls | leans D+1.2 |
| ActiVote | New | 21 polls | leans even |
| SSRS | C- | 19 polls | leans D+0.7 |
| Trafalgar Group | B- | 19 polls | leans R+1.3 |
| Siena College | A- | 17 polls | leans D+2.6 |
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index.
44% approve, 51% disapprove in the average of 1 recent Texas poll (latest Jun 16, 2025). Every Texas approval poll.
Talarico leads by 3.7 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls (Talarico vs. Paxton, updated Nov 11, 2026).
Abbott leads by 2.4 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls (Hinojosa vs. Abbott, updated Nov 11, 2026).
Updated Nov 11, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds