Trust Score 67/100, rank #17 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 71% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #7–32). Highly accurate · Consistent R tilt · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 76th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 53th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±5.1 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 7/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 1 | 5.3 | R+5.3 |
| 2004 | 1 | 3.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2006 | 3 | 7.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2008 | 1 | 2.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2009 | 3 | 11.8 | R+9.7 |
| 2010 | 10 | 4.9 | R+2.2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 5.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2012 | 9 | 7.3 | R+6.8 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3.4 | R+1.5 |
| 2016 | 7 | 5.1 | R+5.1 |
| 2018 | 4 | 9.4 | R+9.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | 2.4 | D+2.4 |
| 2022 | 7 | 4.2 | D+2.9 |
13 polls this cycle; its polls have been 2.7 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races (raw gap D+3.6, adjusted for its 12 polls); spread 1.83× what its sample sizes predict (noisier than sampling explains).
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 | Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 | D+4.6 |
| 10-03 | Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 48 | R+2.6 |
| 10-03 | Alaska Senate | Peltola 50, Sullivan 43 | D+5.7 |
| 10-03 | Ohio Senate | Brown 49, Husted 46 | R+0.3 |
| 09-23 | New York Governor | Hochul 50, Blakeman 41 | R+6.5 |
| 08-06 | New York Governor | Hochul 49, Blakeman 39 | D+0.7 |
| 06-23 | New York Governor | Hochul 52, Blakeman 32 | D+10 |
| 04-30 | New York Governor | Hochul 49, Blakeman 33 | D+2.4 |
| 03-26 | New York Governor | Hochul 47, Blakeman 34 | R+0.6 |
| 02-26 | New York Governor | Hochul 51, Blakeman 31 | D+4.3 |
| 01-28 | New York Governor | Hochul 54, Blakeman 28 | D+12 |
| 12-12 | New York Governor | Hochul 50, Blakeman 25 | D+14 |
| 06-26 | New York Governor | Hochul 44, Blakeman 19 |
States polled: Alaska, Iowa, New York, Ohio, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open Siena College in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Siena College is rated A- in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 67 of 100, rank 17 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 5.7 points on average, against 5.9 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 89% of races.
Historically, Siena College's misses leaned R+3.2 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 2.7 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
13 polls in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Alaska Senate, Ohio Senate, New York Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.