Texas · Governor · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Texas Governor: Hinojosa vs. Abbott

Abbott leads by 2.4 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans GOP.

Hinojosa (D)47.3%
Abbott (R)49.7%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
Hinojosa 35%65% Abbott
Open in CrosstabGet alerts for this race

Polling average over time

414753 47.4% 49.8% Aug 4, 2026Nov 1, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateHinojosaAbbott
The New York Times/Siena UniversityNov 1, 20264847
ActiVoteOct 29, 202647.952.1
YouGovOct 29, 20264950
Quantus InsightsOct 28, 202646.351.6
CNNOct 27, 20264648
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterOct 25, 20264750
ActiVoteOct 21, 202647.552.5
YouGovOct 21, 20264648
VoteHub/VerasightOct 20, 202646.447.7
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchOct 19, 20264752
EmersonOct 19, 20264549
PollfinityOct 18, 20264645
Slingshot StrategiesOct 18, 20264851
CBS News/YouGovOct 16, 20264852
ActiVoteOct 14, 20264951
University of HoustonOct 14, 20264649
New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupOct 13, 20264648
MaristOct 11, 20264549
GBAOOct 8, 20264745
ReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 8, 20264748
YouGovOct 5, 20264847
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectOct 5, 20264948
NY Times/SienaOct 1, 20264946
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchSep 28, 20264752
Guidant Polling & StrategySep 28, 20264446
UMass Lowell/YouGovSep 28, 20264448
Big Data PollSep 26, 20264449
TPORSep 25, 20264650
Stratus IntelligenceSep 24, 20264550
MaristSep 23, 20264946
TSU/YouGovSep 22, 20264549
Slingshot StrategiesSep 22, 20264650
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterSep 19, 20264549
EmersonSep 17, 20264649
Texas A&M/SienaSep 17, 20264945
Telemundo/Mason-DixonSep 15, 20264148
SoCal StrategiesSep 13, 20264452
Fabrizio/AnzaloneSep 10, 20264649
UnivisionSep 9, 20264747
YouGovSep 4, 20264747
TPPFSep 2, 20264951
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchSep 1, 20264649
Overton InsightsAug 26, 20264951
Texas Public Opinion ResearchAug 24, 20264249
Slingshot StrategiesAug 24, 20264249
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectAug 13, 20264045
EmersonAug 10, 20264549
GBAOAug 9, 20264849
Wedgewood PollsJul 31, 20264450
CygnalJul 31, 20264649
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 30, 20264546
Texas Southern UniversityJul 30, 20264349
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 27, 20264950
Texas Public Opinion ResearchJul 17, 20264245
NY Times/SienaJun 27, 20264451
SoCal StrategiesJun 21, 20264254
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectJun 12, 20264047
Quantus InsightsJun 4, 20264149
Texas A&M University/ReconMRJun 4, 20264349
Texas Public Opinion ResearchMay 28, 20264146
Public Policy PollingMay 23, 20264448
Texas Southern University/YouGovMay 5, 20264349
Slingshot StrategiesApr 20, 20264348
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectApr 20, 20263844
UT TylerFeb 22, 20264149
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectFeb 16, 20263545
GBAOFeb 3, 20264346
University of Houston/YouGovJan 31, 20264249
EmersonJan 12, 20264250

The candidates

Gina Hinojosa
Democrat · Texas State Representative

Regina Inez Hinojosa is an American politician and lawyer who is the governor-elect of Texas. A member of the Democratic Party, she has represented the 49th district in the Texas House of Representatives since 2017. Upon taking office, she is expected to become Texas's first Lati…

Talks about: Education Testing, School Takeovers, School Vouchers, Tax Refund, Electricity Rates
Greg Abbott
Republican · Governor of Texas since 2015

Gregory Wayne Abbott is an American politician, attorney, and jurist serving since 2015 as the 48th Governor of Texas. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2002 to 2015 as the 50th attorney general of Texas and from 1996 to 2001 as a justice of the Texas Supreme Court…

Talks about: Property Tax Reform, Housing Costs, Healthcare Costs, Insurance Costs, Energy Costs

In the news

There may be border trouble ahead for Gina Hinojosa
Newsweek · Nov 11, 2026

Gina Hinojosa Predicted Texas Governor Bid in Yearbook 34 Years Ago
Newsweek · Nov 11, 2026

Will Governor Hinojosa Break Up DPS and ICE?
texasobserver.org · Nov 11, 2026

Podcast: El Paso election leaves 3 City Council seats undecided as county leadership changes. What comes next?
elpasomatters.org · Nov 10, 2026

Updated Nov 3, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.

More on Texas

All Texas 2026 races · Gina Hinojosa · Greg Abbott · Every governor race

Questions people ask

Who is winning the Texas governor's race?

Abbott leads by 2.4 points in the Crosstab average of 8 recent polls (Hinojosa vs. Abbott). Crosstab's forecast gives Abbott a 65% chance to win.

When is the Texas governor's election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Who is running for Texas governor in 2026?

Hinojosa (D), Abbott (R).