Trust Score 85/100, rank #2 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 100% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #2–7). Gold standard · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 97th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 72th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4.3 pts |
| Method | IVR/Online Panel |
| Transparency score | 8/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2 | 0.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2014 | 4 | 8 | R+8 |
| 2016 | 51 | 4.6 | D+2.4 |
| 2017 | 5 | 6.1 | R+5.4 |
| 2018 | 60 | 4.2 | even |
| 2020 | 34 | 4.1 | D+3 |
| 2021 | 3 | 3.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2022 | 52 | 4 | R+1.6 |
31 polls this cycle; its polls have been 1.5 points more Republican than other polls of the same races (raw gap R+1.8, adjusted for its 21 polls); spread 1× what its sample sizes predict.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 | Trump approval | Approve 39, Disapprove 58 | |
| 09-24 | Generic ballot | Democrats 53, Republicans 42 | |
| 09-18 | Kansas Senate | Hamilton 45, Marshall 43 | D+3.1 |
| 09-18 | Kansas Governor | Holscher 44, Masterson 51 | R+5.4 |
| 09-17 | Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 | R+3.1 |
| 09-17 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 | R+0.4 |
| 09-17 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 | R+0.5 |
| 09-17 | Michigan Governor | Benson 49, James 42 | R+1.6 |
| 09-10 | Nevada Governor | Ford 44, Lombardo 42 | |
| 09-03 | Iowa Governor | Sand 49, Lahn 46 | R+1.5 |
| 09-01 | Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 50 | R+6.4 |
| 08-20 | Trump approval | Approve 40, Disapprove 56 | |
| 08-20 | Generic ballot | Democrats 51, Republicans 43 | |
| 08-10 | Texas Senate | Talarico 46, Paxton 47 | R+4 |
| 08-10 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 45, Abbott 49 | R+1.1 |
| 08-04 | Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 48 | R+3.7 |
| 08-04 | Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 43 | D+0.4 |
| 07-23 | Generic ballot | Democrats 53, Republicans 42 | |
| 03-31 | Florida Governor | Jolly 39, Donalds 44 | D+0.7 |
| 03-31 | Florida Senate | Moody 47, Nixon 36 | |
| 03-23 | New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 45, Sununu 44 | R+2 |
| 03-02 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 48, Collins 43 | D+4.9 |
| 01-25 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 43, Rogers 43 | R+4 |
| 01-12 | Texas Senate | Talarico 46, Paxton 46 | even |
| 01-12 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 42, Abbott 50 | |
| 12-08 | Ohio Senate | Brown 46, Husted 49 | R+4.6 |
| 12-08 | Ohio Governor | Acton 46, Ramaswamy 45 | D+3 |
| 11-18 | Nevada Governor | Ford 41, Lombardo 41 | |
| 08-19 | Ohio Senate | Brown 44, Husted 50 | R+3 |
| 08-19 | Ohio Governor | Acton 39, Ramaswamy 49 | R+9 |
| 07-30 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 47, Whatley 41 |
States polled: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Texas.
YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage · Siena College
Open Emerson College in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Emerson College is rated A+ in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 85 of 100, rank 2 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.3 points on average, against 4.9 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 76% of races.
Historically, Emerson College's misses leaned D+0.4 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 1.5 points more Republican than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
31 polls in Crosstab's data, including Trump approval, Generic ballot, Kansas Senate, Kansas Governor, Texas Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.