Emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 | 85/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts | 4.3 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better | 0.6 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts ★ | ±4.3 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 | D+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 76% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 211 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1.5 |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | Emerson (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 49 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Turek 45, Hinson 50 (R+6.4 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 52 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (R+0.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 (D+2.2 vs. avg) | Sand 49, Lahn 46 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (R+0.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Benson 49, James 42 (R+1.6 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 (D+5.3 vs. avg) | Brown 46, Husted 49 (R+4.6 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 50 (R+3.7 vs. avg) | Acton 46, Ramaswamy 45 (D+3 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 53, Whatley 44 (D+2.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 47, Whatley 41 |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 56, Collins 43 (D+6.4 vs. avg) | Ossoff 48, Collins 43 (D+4.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Emerson College vs. Siena College
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 4.4 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 10 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.