NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 84/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts | ±3.9 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 76% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 31 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.5 | R+1 ★ |
| Race | Emerson (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate | Hamilton 45, Marshall 43 (D+3.1 vs. avg) | Hamilton 45, Marshall 45 (R+0.6 vs. avg) |
| Kansas Governor | Holscher 44, Masterson 51 (R+5.4 vs. avg) | Holscher 44, Masterson 49 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+3.1 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (R+0.4 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (R+0.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 49, James 42 (R+1.6 vs. avg) | Benson 48, James 43 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 49, Lahn 46 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Sand 52, Lahn 41 (D+3.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 50 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 45, Sununu 44 (R+2 vs. avg) | Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 46, Husted 49 (R+4.6 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 46, Ramaswamy 45 (D+3 vs. avg) | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 47, Whatley 41 | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Emerson College vs. Siena College
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.3 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with NYT/Siena (R+1). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 12 races in Crosstab's data, including Kansas Senate, Kansas Governor, Texas Senate, Texas Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.