Emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts ★ | 5 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better ★ | 0.1 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts ★ | ±4.8 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 76% | 87% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | 31 | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.5 | D+1.4 ★ |
| Race | Emerson (latest) | YouGov (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+3.1 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (R+0.4 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 45, Abbott 49 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 49, Lahn 46 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Sand 50, Lahn 39 (D+7 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 50 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 43 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 48, Collins 43 (D+4.9 vs. avg) | Ossoff 52, Collins 42 (D+2.6 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 47, Whatley 41 | Cooper 53, Whatley 41 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 5 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with YouGov (D+1.4). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 6 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.