Senate · Crosstab forecast · 20,000 simulations

2026 Senate forecast

Democrats have a 66% chance to win control of the Senate; Republicans 34%. Most likely outcome: 52-48.

Democrats 66%34% Republicans

How many seats

4345474951535557
Democratic seats in 20,000 simulations. Blue bars are Democratic majorities (51+); Republicans keep control at 50 through the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.

Every competitive Senate race

RacePoll averageChance to winRating
MinnesotaTied50% TafoyaToss Up
KansasTied54% HamiltonToss Up
IowaTurek +0.458% TurekToss Up
MaineJackson +0.758% JacksonToss Up
AlaskaPeltola +2.364% PeltolaLeans Dem
TexasTalarico +3.065% TalaricoLeans Dem
OhioBrown +2.569% BrownLeans Dem
MichiganEl-Sayed +3.374% El-SayedLeans Dem
FloridaMoody +5.076% MoodyLeans GOP
New HampshirePappas +5.286% PappasLikely Dem
North CarolinaCooper +7.890% CooperLikely Dem
GeorgiaOssoff +8.891% OssoffLikely Dem
MassachusettsMarkey +23.0100% MarkeySolid Dem
Rhode IslandReed +20.0100% ReedSolid Dem
Open in CrosstabGovernor races

Questions people ask

Who will win the Senate in 2026?

Crosstab's forecast gives Democrats a 66% chance and Republicans a 34% chance of winning control of the Senate, with 52-48 the most likely outcome (updated Sep 28, 2026). A forecast is a probability, not a certainty.

How many seats do Democrats need to win the Senate?

51. With a Republican Vice President breaking ties, a 50-50 Senate stays under Republican control.

What are the closest Senate races in 2026?

Minnesota (50% Tafoya), Kansas (54% Hamilton), Iowa (58% Turek), Maine (58% Jackson), Alaska (64% Peltola).

How does the Crosstab forecast work?

It adjusts each race's polling average for pollster house effects, blends it with published expert ratings, and simulates the election 20,000 times with a shared national polling error.

Updated Sep 28, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds