Senate · Crosstab forecast · 20,000 simulations

2026 Senate forecast

Democrats have a 75% chance to win control of the Senate; Republicans 25%. Most likely outcome: 53-47.

Democrats 75%25% Republicans

How many seats

4446485052545658
Democratic seats in 20,000 simulations. Blue bars are Democratic majorities (51+); Republicans keep control at 50 through the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.

Every competitive Senate race

RacePoll averageChance to winRating
IowaTurek +0.655% TurekToss Up
MinnesotaFlanagan +2.861% FlanaganLeans Dem
AlaskaPeltola +2.464% PeltolaLeans Dem
OhioBrown +3.068% BrownLeans Dem
TexasTalarico +3.772% TalaricoLeans Dem
KansasHamilton +4.674% HamiltonLeans Dem
MaineJackson +5.078% JacksonLeans Dem
MichiganEl-Sayed +6.082% El-SayedLikely Dem
FloridaMoody +5.284% MoodyLikely GOP
New HampshirePappas +8.292% PappasLikely Dem
GeorgiaOssoff +8.995% OssoffSolid Dem
North CarolinaCooper +11.097% CooperSolid Dem
MassachusettsMarkey +25.0100% MarkeySolid Dem
Rhode IslandReed +30.1100% ReedSolid Dem
Open in CrosstabGovernor races

Questions people ask

Who will win the Senate in 2026?

Crosstab's forecast gives Democrats a 75% chance and Republicans a 25% chance of winning control of the Senate, with 53-47 the most likely outcome (updated Nov 11, 2026). A forecast is a probability, not a certainty.

How many seats do Democrats need to win the Senate?

51. With a Republican Vice President breaking ties, a 50-50 Senate stays under Republican control.

What are the closest Senate races in 2026?

Iowa (55% Turek), Minnesota (61% Flanagan), Alaska (64% Peltola), Ohio (68% Brown), Texas (72% Talarico).

How does the Crosstab forecast work?

It adjusts each race's polling average for pollster house effects, blends it with published expert ratings, and simulates the election 20,000 times with a shared national polling error.

Updated Nov 11, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds