Michigan · Senate · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Michigan Senate: El-Sayed vs. Rogers

El-Sayed leads by 6.0 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Likely Dem.

El-Sayed (D)51.3%
Rogers (R)45.4%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
El-Sayed 82%18% Rogers
Open in CrosstabGet alerts for this race

Polling average over time

404754 51.3% 44.8% Aug 5, 2026Nov 2, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateEl-SayedRogers
John Zogby StrategiesNov 2, 20265149
Research Co.Nov 1, 20264846
NY Times/SienaNov 1, 20265342
EmersonNov 1, 20265145
Concord Public Opinion PartnersNov 1, 20265141
AtlasIntelNov 1, 20265446
Rasmussen ReportsOct 29, 20264944
YouGovOct 29, 20265147
Upswing ResearchOct 28, 20265045
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 27, 20265144
SSRSOct 27, 20264942
Data for ProgressOct 25, 20265046
RedBox ResearchOct 23, 20264944
Michigan State University/VerasightOct 23, 20265143
InsiderAdvantageOct 22, 20264746
Glengariff GroupOct 22, 20265145
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovOct 19, 20264845.5
MaristOct 18, 20265048
Rasmussen ReportsOct 14, 20264644
InsiderAdvantageOct 10, 20264846
Wedgewood PollsOct 9, 20265347
The Tyson GroupOct 8, 20264446
Quantus InsightsOct 6, 20264847
YouGovOct 4, 20264948
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1, 20264641
Z to A ResearchOct 1, 20264942
Trafalgar GroupSep 30, 20264745
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchSep 28, 20265049
MaristSep 27, 20265144
Guidant Polling & StrategySep 27, 20264843
The Tyson GroupSep 27, 20264443
Big Data PollSep 25, 20264742
NY Times/SienaSep 24, 20264944
Rasmussen ReportsSep 24, 20264744
co/efficientSep 23, 20264545
Suffolk UniversitySep 22, 20264740
GBAOSep 22, 20264844
Cygnal/Beacon ResearchSep 21, 20264540
Torchlight StrategiesSep 19, 20264344
InsiderAdvantageSep 18, 20264745
EmersonSep 17, 20264846
Washington PostSep 17, 20264845
Trafalgar GroupSep 9, 20264645
SSRSSep 6, 20264744
Glengariff GroupSep 3, 20264446
Abacus DataAug 28, 20264945
EPIC-MRAAug 28, 20265045
Michigan State University/YouGovAug 20, 20265045
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchAug 17, 20264639
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchAug 11, 20264847
TIPP InsightsAug 10, 20264339
GBAOAug 10, 20265044
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchAug 10, 20264751
EPIC-MRAJul 31, 20264346
SoCal StrategiesJul 30, 20264142
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 29, 20264545
Glengariff GroupJul 24, 20263949
Quantus InsightsJun 30, 20264544
Data for ProgressJun 22, 20264746
Zenith ResearchJun 14, 20264542
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 13, 20264742
Tulchin ResearchJun 4, 20264641
TIPP InsightsMay 23, 20264040
Mitchell ResearchMay 7, 20264142
Glengariff GroupMay 1, 20264045
EmersonJan 25, 20264343
Glengariff GroupJan 6, 20264743
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 21, 20253841
Rosetta Stone CommunicationsOct 25, 20253145
Glengariff GroupMay 8, 20254147

The candidates

Abdul El-Sayed
Democrat

Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed is an American politician, epidemiologist, and academic who is the United States senator-elect from Michigan.

Talks about: Medicare for All, Money in Politics, Billionaire Wealth Tax, Housing, Foreign Policy
Mike Rogers
Republican · Former U.S. Representative from Michigan (2001–2015)

In the news

Video of elections analyst does not prove Michigan fraud
factcheck.afp.com · Nov 10, 2026

For Backstabbing El-Sayed, Progressives in Michigan Demand ‘Capricious’ Haley Stevens Be Expelled From Democratic Party | Common Dreams
commondreams.org · Nov 10, 2026

Haley Stevens hid in Republican cloakroom as she returned to Congress: report
independent.co.uk · Nov 10, 2026

Updated Nov 3, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.

More on Michigan

All Michigan 2026 races · Abdul El-Sayed · Mike Rogers · Senate forecast

Questions people ask

Who is winning the Michigan Senate race?

El-Sayed leads by 6.0 points in the Crosstab average of 8 recent polls (El-Sayed vs. Rogers). Crosstab's forecast gives El-Sayed a 82% chance to win.

When is the Michigan Senate election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Who is running for Michigan Senate in 2026?

El-Sayed (D), Rogers (R).