Trust Score 28/100, rank #58 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 83% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #32–64).
| Trust Score percentile | 19th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 21th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4.6 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 7/10 |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 6 | 5 | D+4.7 |
| 2006 | 7 | 4.5 | D+3.2 |
| 2008 | 17 | 4.2 | D+1.1 |
| 2010 | 4 | 5.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2012 | 1 | 5.9 | R+5.9 |
| 2014 | 4 | 6.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2016 | 9 | 3.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2017 | 1 | 3.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2020 | 14 | 3.6 | D+0.7 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0.1 | even |
| 2022 | 28 | 5.5 | R+3.9 |
14 polls this cycle; its polls have been 0.8 points more Republican than other polls of the same races (raw gap R+1.1, adjusted for its 13 polls); spread 0.78× what its sample sizes predict.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 | Ohio Senate | Brown 44, Husted 43 | R+2.7 |
| 09-29 | Minnesota Senate | Flanagan 46, Tafoya 45 | R+1.2 |
| 09-26 | Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 46 | R+0.3 |
| 09-26 | Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 46 | R+2.3 |
| 09-25 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 50, Collins 42 | R+0.7 |
| 09-25 | Georgia Governor | Lance Bottoms 46, Jackson 48 | R+0.4 |
| 09-21 | Florida Senate | Moody 49, Nixon 42 | |
| 09-18 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 | R+0.3 |
| 09-18 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 48, Whatley 43 | R+4.9 |
| 09-18 | New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 48, Sununu 40 | D+5 |
| 09-09 | Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 | R+2.6 |
| 09-09 | Ohio Senate | Brown 47, Husted 42 | R+0.6 |
| 08-17 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 50, Collins 43 | R+0.9 |
| 08-17 | Georgia Governor | Lance Bottoms 46, Jackson 46 | R+2.5 |
States polled: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · Siena College
Open InsiderAdvantage in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
InsiderAdvantage is rated C in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 28 of 100, rank 58 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.6 points on average, against 4.3 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 62% of races.
Historically, InsiderAdvantage's misses leaned D+0.3 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 0.8 points more Republican than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
14 polls in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Minnesota Senate, Iowa Senate, Maine Senate, Georgia Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.