Ashley Moody Republican · Senate
Angie Nixon · Senate
David W. Jolly Democrat · Governor
Byron Donalds Republican · Governor
| District | Incumbent | Crosstab rating | Dem. chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | Jimmy Patronis (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| FL-02 | Neal Dunn (R) | Likely Republican | 11% |
| FL-03 | Kat Cammack (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| FL-04 | Aaron Bean (R) | Leans Republican | 36% |
| FL-05 | John Rutherford (R) | Likely Republican | 5% |
| FL-06 | Randy Fine (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| FL-07 | Cory Mills (R) | Leans Republican | 36% |
| FL-08 | Mike Haridopolos (R) | Likely Republican | 17% |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto (D) | Likely Republican | 11% |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Frost (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| FL-11 | Daniel Webster (R) | Likely Republican | 17% |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis (R) | Leans Republican | 21% |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | Leans Republican | 31% |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) | Toss-up | 41% |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee (R) | Likely Republican | 6% |
| FL-16 | Vern Buchanan (R) | Leans Republican | 26% |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube (R) | Safe Republican | 4% |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin (R) | Likely Republican | 14% |
| FL-19 | Byron Donalds (R) | Safe Republican | 0% |
| FL-20 | VACANT (Cherfilus-McCormick) (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast (R) | Likely Republican | 17% |
| FL-22 | Lois Frankel (D) | Toss-up | 48% |
| FL-23 | Jared Moskowitz (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| FL-24 | Frederica Wilson (D) | Safe Democratic | 100% |
| FL-25 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) | Toss-up | 53% |
| FL-26 | Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | Likely Republican | 11% |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | Leans Republican | 22% |
| FL-28 | Carlos Gimenez (R) | Safe Republican | 1% |
| YouGov | B- | 74 polls | leans D+1 |
| Emerson College | A+ | 48 polls | leans R+1.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | A+ | 39 polls | leans even |
| Quantus Insights | New | 32 polls | leans R+3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | C | 31 polls | leans R+1.1 |
| co/efficient | New | 26 polls | leans R+4.2 |
| Echelon Insights | New | 21 polls | leans even |
| ActiVote | New | 21 polls | leans even |
| Big Data Poll | New | 15 polls | leans even |
| Change Research | C+ | 15 polls | leans D+1 |
| Research Co. | New | 10 polls | leans even |
| RedBox Research | New | 9 polls | leans even |
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index.
45.6% approve, 46.7% disapprove in the average of 1 recent Florida poll (latest Mar 31, 2026). Every Florida approval poll.
Moody leads by 5.2 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls (Moody vs. Nixon, updated Nov 11, 2026).
Donalds leads by 3.0 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls (Jolly vs. Donalds, updated Nov 11, 2026).
Updated Nov 11, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds