Trust Score 33/100, rank #54 of 72 (low confidence; grade held in 44% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #18–68). Consistent D tilt · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 24th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 13th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4.5 pts |
| Method | Text-to-Web/Online Ad |
| Transparency score | 6/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | 4.9 | R+4.2 |
| 2018 | 50 | 5.4 | D+2.1 |
| 2020 | 44 | 6 | D+5.6 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1.6 | D+1.6 |
13 polls this cycle; its polls have been 0.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races (raw gap D+1.1, adjusted for its 10 polls); spread 2.46× what its sample sizes predict (noisier than sampling explains).
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 | Florida Governor | Jolly 48, Donalds 47 | D+8 |
| 09-27 | Florida Senate | Moody 48, Nixon 47 | |
| 09-09 | Florida Governor | Jolly 47, Donalds 44 | D+4.7 |
| 09-09 | Florida Senate | Moody 47, Nixon 47 | |
| 08-06 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 | R+1.9 |
| 08-01 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 41 | even |
| 07-11 | Florida Governor | Jolly 37, Donalds 37 | D+6.9 |
| 05-16 | Florida Governor | Jolly 46, Donalds 42 | D+10.9 |
| 05-08 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 49, Whatley 42 | R+1.1 |
| 02-04 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 40 | R+14 |
| 01-11 | Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | |
| 01-07 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 47, Whatley 42 | R+3 |
| 09-08 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 48, Whatley 41 | D+0.8 |
States polled: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open Change Research in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Change Research is rated C+ in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 33 of 100, rank 54 of 72, low confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 5.6 points on average, against 4.9 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 71% of races.
Historically, Change Research's misses leaned D+3.2 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 0.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
13 polls in Crosstab's data, including Florida Governor, Florida Senate, North Carolina Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.