Change comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | D+2.5 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 | D+0.5 ★ |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Change has the smaller average error (5.6 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, change comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.