Pollster ratings · Crosstab Trust Index

University of New Hampshire Survey Center D

Trust Score 16/100, rank #69 of 72 (low confidence; grade held in 22% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #57–70). Transparency member.

Average error
6
points, vs. 5.2 expected for its races
Versus other pollsters, same races
0.9 worse
points
Historical bias
D+2.5
which way its misses leaned
Winners called
82%
116 polls, 2000–2022

How University of New Hampshire Survey Center compares

Trust Score percentile4th (median 49)
Accuracy versus expected10th percentile
Random miss (consistency)±5.5 pts
MethodLive Phone
Transparency score10/10 · AAPOR/Roper member

Average error by election cycle

CyclePollsAvg errorBias
200022.9R+1.9
200288.2D+4.7
2004104.5R+2
200686.7R+1.7
2008205.2D+4.6
201085.3D+4.4
2012124.7R+3.7
201312.8D+2.8
2014125.2D+3.5
2016209D+9
201836.4D+6.4
202054.1R+0.7
202275.5R+4.5

University of New Hampshire Survey Center in 2026

31 polls this cycle; its polls have been 0.5 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races (raw gap D+0.6, adjusted for its 15 polls); spread 1.74× what its sample sizes predict.

DatePollResultvs. other polls
09-24Maine SenateJackson 51, Collins 47D+1.5
09-24Maine GovernorPingree 48, Charles 40R+3.9
09-24New Hampshire SenatePappas 50, Sununu 42D+3
09-24Connecticut GovernorLamont 55, Fazio 38D+4
09-24Massachusetts SenateMarkey 53, Deaton 30
09-24New Hampshire GovernorWarmington 43, Ayotte 47D+9.9
09-24Massachusetts GovernorHealey 54, Minogue 38R+4.9
09-24Rhode Island SenateReed 53, McKay 33
09-24Vermont GovernorScott 43, Janoo 49
09-24Rhode Island GovernorFoulkes 44, Block 25, Guckian 17, Gotr 0
08-24New Hampshire SenatePappas 43, Sununu 45R+9
08-24Connecticut GovernorLamont 52, Fazio 37
08-24Massachusetts SenateMarkey 49, Deaton 30
08-24New Hampshire GovernorWarmington 39, Ayotte 49D+1
08-24Massachusetts GovernorHealey 54, Minogue 30D+4
08-24Rhode Island SenateReed 51, McKay 31
07-20Maine SenateJackson 49, Collins 46R+0.4
07-20Vermont GovernorScott 44, Janoo 33
06-23New Hampshire SenatePappas 47, Sununu 44D+1.1
06-23Connecticut GovernorLamont 49, Fazio 36
06-23New Hampshire GovernorWarmington 39, Ayotte 44
06-23Massachusetts GovernorHealey 51, Minogue 32R+6.3
06-23Rhode Island SenateReed 52, McKay 35
06-23Vermont GovernorScott 42, Janoo 27
04-21New Hampshire SenatePappas 49, Sununu 42D+5.1
04-21New Hampshire GovernorWarmington 39, Ayotte 47
04-20Massachusetts GovernorHealey 52, Minogue 32
04-20Rhode Island SenateReed 52, McKay 34
02-16Massachusetts GovernorHealey 56, Minogue 27
01-19New Hampshire SenatePappas 50, Sununu 45even
09-23New Hampshire SenatePappas 49, Sununu 43D+3.4

States polled: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Compare University of New Hampshire Survey Center with

YouGov · Emerson College · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage · Siena College

Open University of New Hampshire Survey Center in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings

Frequently asked questions

Is University of New Hampshire Survey Center accurate?

University of New Hampshire Survey Center is rated D in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 16 of 100, rank 69 of 72, low confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 6 points on average, against 5.2 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 82% of races.

Does University of New Hampshire Survey Center lean Republican or Democratic?

Historically, University of New Hampshire Survey Center's misses leaned D+2.5 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 0.5 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.

What has University of New Hampshire Survey Center polled in 2026?

31 polls in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate, Maine Governor, New Hampshire Senate, Connecticut Governor, Massachusetts Senate.

Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.

Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.