NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | D+2.5 |
| Winners called | 69% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 | D+0.5 ★ |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | UNH (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 49 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 51, Collins 47 (D+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Maine Governor | Pingree 47, Charles 34 (D+2.3 vs. avg) | Pingree 48, Charles 40 (R+3.9 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) | Pappas 50, Sununu 42 (D+3 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Governor | Warmington 41, Ayotte 52 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Warmington 43, Ayotte 47 (D+9.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with UNH (D+0.5). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate, Maine Governor, New Hampshire Senate, New Hampshire Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.