Emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | D+2.5 |
| Winners called | 76% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 31 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.5 | D+0.5 ★ |
| Race | Emerson (latest) | UNH (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 45, Sununu 44 (R+2 vs. avg) | Pappas 50, Sununu 42 (D+3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Emerson College vs. Siena College
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with UNH (D+0.5). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including New Hampshire Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.