Emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Emerson | Marist |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 85/100 ★ | 61/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.3 pts ★ | 4.8 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.6 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.3 pts ★ | ±4.7 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 | D+0.4 |
| Winners called | 76% | 80% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 211 polls | 130 polls |
| 2026 polls | 31 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.5 ★ | D+3.1 |
| Race | Emerson (latest) | Marist (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+3.1 vs. avg) | Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (D+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (R+0.4 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.9 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (R+0.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 49, James 42 (R+1.6 vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+4.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 49, Lahn 46 (R+1.5 vs. avg) | Sand 54, Lahn 42 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 45, Hinson 50 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Turek 50, Hinson 42 (D+8.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 46, Husted 49 (R+4.6 vs. avg) | Brown 51, Husted 43 (D+5.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 46, Ramaswamy 45 (D+3 vs. avg) | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 44 (D+2.8 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · Marist College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 4.8 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85; Marist: B+, Trust Score 61).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Marist (D+3.1). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 8 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Texas Governor, Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.