Texas · Senate · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Texas Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton

Talarico leads by 2.8 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans Dem.

Talarico (D)47.5%
Paxton (R)44.7%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
Talarico 65%35% Paxton
Open in CrosstabGet alerts for this race

Polling average over time

414650 47.5% 44.7% Sep 15, 2026Sep 25, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateTalaricoPaxton
TPORSep 25, 20264944
MaristSep 23, 20265044
TSU/YouGovSep 22, 20264746
NBC5/TelemundoSep 21, 20264643
Trafalgar GroupSep 18, 20264645
EmersonSep 17, 20264746
Texas A&M/SienaSep 17, 20264943
ReconMR/SienaSep 17, 20264943
Telemundo/Mason-DixonSep 15, 20264643

The candidates

Talarico
Democrat
Paxton
Republican

In the news

Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Greg Abbott leads for governor
NBC News · Sep 21, 2026

Texas 2026 Poll: Talarico and Paxton in Dead Heat, Abbott Maintains Edge
Emerson College Polling · Sep 17, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.