Texas · Senate · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Texas Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton

Talarico leads by 3.7 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans Dem.

Talarico (D)49.5%
Paxton (R)45.8%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
Talarico 72%28% Paxton
Open in CrosstabGet alerts for this race

Polling average over time

414752 49.8% 46.3% Aug 4, 2026Nov 1, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateTalaricoPaxton
The New York Times/Siena UniversityNov 1, 20265043
ActiVoteOct 28, 202652.147.9
Quantus InsightsOct 28, 202648.449.4
CNNOct 27, 20264943
A2 InsightsOct 27, 202650.247.2
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterOct 25, 20264947
ActiVoteOct 21, 20265149
YouGovOct 21, 20265045
VoteHub/VerasightOct 20, 202647.645.2
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchOct 19, 20264949
EmersonOct 19, 20264846
PollfinityOct 18, 20264843
Slingshot StrategiesOct 18, 20265147
CBS News/YouGovOct 16, 20265149
InsiderAdvantageOct 14, 20264849
ActiVoteOct 14, 20265248
University of HoustonOct 14, 20264846
New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupOct 13, 20264944
Quantus InsightsOct 11, 20264747
MaristOct 11, 20264745
Trafalgar GroupOct 8, 20264744
ReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 8, 20264844
YouGovOct 5, 20265044
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectOct 5, 20265047
Siena Research InstituteOct 3, 20265145
Rasmussen ReportsSep 29, 20264645
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company ResearchSep 28, 20265149
Guidant Polling & StrategySep 28, 20264744
UMass Lowell/YouGovSep 28, 20264545
Pulse Decision ScienceSep 27, 20264548
Big Data PollSep 26, 20264745
TPORSep 25, 20264944
Stratus IntelligenceSep 24, 20264848
MaristSep 23, 20265044
TSU/YouGovSep 22, 20264746
Slingshot StrategiesSep 22, 20264945
NBC5/TelemundoSep 21, 20264643
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterSep 19, 20264746
Trafalgar GroupSep 18, 20264645
EmersonSep 17, 20264746
Texas A&M/SienaSep 17, 20264943
Telemundo/Mason-DixonSep 15, 20264643
SoCal StrategiesSep 13, 20265045
InsiderAdvantageSep 9, 20264746
Univision/YouGovSep 4, 20264843
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchSep 1, 20264844
Overton InsightsAug 26, 20265050
Texas Public Opinion ResearchAug 24, 20264842
Slingshot StrategiesAug 24, 20264842
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectAug 13, 20264239
EmersonAug 10, 20264647
Wedgewood PollsJul 31, 20264846
YouGov BlueJul 31, 20264845
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJul 30, 20264743
Texas Southern UniversityJul 30, 20264745
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchJul 27, 20265148
Texas Public Opinion ResearchJul 17, 20264540
A2 InsightsJun 28, 20264846
NY Times/SienaJun 27, 20264747
SoCal StrategiesJun 21, 20264749
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectJun 12, 20264243
Quantus InsightsJun 4, 20264345
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena UniversityJun 4, 20264646
Texas Public Opinion ResearchMay 28, 20264744
Public Policy PollingMay 23, 20264538
Texas Southern UniversityMay 6, 20264545
Texas Public Opinion ResearchApr 20, 20264641
University of Texas/Texas Politics ProjectApr 20, 20264234
Impact ResearchMar 17, 20264443
Public Policy PollingMar 5, 20264745
University of Houston/YouGovJan 31, 20264446
EmersonJan 12, 20264646
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 17, 20254444
University of Houston/Texas Southern UniversityOct 1, 20254649
UT TylerSep 24, 20253738

The candidates

James Talarico
Democrat

James Dell Talarico is an American politician and educator who is the United States senator-elect from Texas. A member of the Democratic Party, he has served since 2018 as a member of the Texas House of Representatives.

Ken Paxton
Republican

Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the 51st attorney general of Texas since 2015. He was the Republican nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas.

Talks about: Border Security, Immigration Enforcement, Gun Rights & Social Issues, Fiscal Policy, Healthcare & Food Policy

In the news

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Updated Nov 3, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.

More on Texas

All Texas 2026 races · James Talarico · Ken Paxton · Senate forecast

Questions people ask

Who is winning the Texas Senate race?

Talarico leads by 3.7 points in the Crosstab average of 8 recent polls (Talarico vs. Paxton). Crosstab's forecast gives Talarico a 72% chance to win.

When is the Texas Senate election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Who is running for Texas Senate in 2026?

Talarico (D), Paxton (R).