James Talarico is leading Paxton by 2.5 points. Crosstab's forecast gives Talarico a 63% chance to win.
See every poll in this raceJames Dell Talarico is an American politician, Presbyterian seminarian, and educator serving since 2018 as a member of the Texas House of Representatives. He is the Democratic Party's nominee in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.
Education: McNeil High School, University of Texas at Austin, Harvard Graduate School of Education
James Talarico is leading Paxton by 2.5 points in the Crosstab average for the 2026 Texas Senate race, at 47.6% (updated Sep 28, 2026).
Crosstab's forecast gives James Talarico a 63% chance of winning the Texas Senate race.
James Talarico is a Democrat.
Updated Sep 28, 2026 · How Crosstab calculates averages and odds