Trust Score 59/100, rank #29 of 72 (low confidence; grade held in 45% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #5–62). Consistent D tilt · Transparency member.
| Trust Score percentile | 60th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 42th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 6/10 · AAPOR/Roper member |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4 | 3.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2014 | 7 | 8.3 | D+7.8 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1.2 | D+1.1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 6.1 | D+2.2 |
| 2018 | 8 | 4.4 | D+2.8 |
| 2020 | 6 | 5.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2021 | 2 | 6.5 | D+0.4 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | R+1.3 |
21 polls this cycle; its polls have been 0.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races (raw gap D+1, adjusted for its 21 polls); spread 1.55× what its sample sizes predict.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 | Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 49 | even |
| 09-28 | Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 | D+0.6 |
| 09-28 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 52 | R+1.9 |
| 09-28 | Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 | D+2.2 |
| 09-28 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 | R+3.6 |
| 09-28 | Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 | D+0.6 |
| 08-10 | Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 | D+5.3 |
| 08-10 | Maine Senate | Jackson 48, Collins 46 | R+1.4 |
| 08-10 | Ohio Governor | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 50 | R+3.7 |
| 08-10 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 51 | R+5 |
| 08-10 | Michigan Governor | Benson 52, James 47 | R+4.4 |
| 08-10 | Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 | R+0.4 |
| 07-27 | Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 48 | D+1.1 |
| 07-27 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 50 | D+4.8 |
| 07-27 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 53, Whatley 44 | D+2.9 |
| 06-27 | Iowa Senate | Turek 50, Hinson 46 | D+5.1 |
| 06-27 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 56, Collins 43 | D+6.4 |
| 06-27 | Georgia Governor | Lance Bottoms 52, Jackson 47 | R+10 |
| 06-27 | Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 | D+6.1 |
| 06-01 | Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 | D+11.8 |
| 06-01 | Ohio Governor | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 49 | D+3.6 |
States polled: Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage · Siena College
Open Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research is rated B in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 59 of 100, rank 29 of 72, low confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.4 points on average, against 4.4 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 67% of races.
Historically, Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research's misses leaned D+2.2 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 0.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
21 polls in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor, Michigan Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.