Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 67% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1.3 |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 49 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (R+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 (D+5.3 vs. avg) | Brown 45, Husted 42 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 48, Collins 46 (R+1.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 46, Collins 46 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 53, Whatley 44 (D+2.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (R+2.9 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 56, Collins 43 (D+6.4 vs. avg) | Ossoff 49, Collins 43 (R+1.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 4.4 pts). Overall, beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 7 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Michigan Senate, Ohio Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.