NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 4.2 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 69% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 ★ | R+1.3 |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate | Hamilton 45, Marshall 45 (R+0.6 vs. avg) | Hamilton 44, Marshall 44 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 49 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 46, Collins 46 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) | Pappas 47, Sununu 41 (even vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) | Brown 45, Husted 42 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (R+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) | Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (R+2.9 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Yes: 8 races in Crosstab's data, including Kansas Senate, Maine Senate, Michigan Senate, New Hampshire Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.