Trust Score 48/100, rank #38 of 72 (medium confidence; grade held in 52% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #14–65). Consistent R tilt · Often Republican-sponsored.
| Trust Score percentile | 47th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 32th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.4 pts |
| Method | IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email |
| Transparency score | 4/10 |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 3.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2018 | 16 | 4.4 | R+2 |
| 2019 | 2 | 5.1 | R+5.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | 2.6 | R+2.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | 0.8 | D+0.5 |
| 2022 | 34 | 5.7 | R+5.4 |
13 polls this cycle; its polls have been 1.3 points more Republican than other polls of the same races (raw gap R+1.7, adjusted for its 11 polls); spread 0.29× what its sample sizes predict (unusually close to the average).
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 | Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 46 | R+1.1 |
| 10-01 | Kansas Senate | Hamilton 44, Marshall 44 | R+0.7 |
| 09-30 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 | R+2.1 |
| 09-27 | New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 47, Sununu 41 | even |
| 09-26 | South Carolina Senate | Graham Nordone 43, Andrews 42 | |
| 09-25 | Alaska Senate | Peltola 46, Sullivan 47, J. Sullivan 3, Heikes 1 | R+2.9 |
| 09-19 | Iowa Senate | Turek 42, Hinson 44 | R+2.3 |
| 09-18 | Texas Senate | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 | R+2.4 |
| 09-17 | Ohio Senate | Brown 45, Husted 42 | R+1.5 |
| 09-12 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 49, Collins 43 | R+1.4 |
| 09-10 | North Carolina Senate | Cooper 48, Whatley 42 | R+2.9 |
| 09-09 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 46, Rogers 45 | R+1.7 |
| 04-27 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 48, Collins 43 |
States polled: Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open Trafalgar Group in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Trafalgar Group is rated B- in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 48 of 100, rank 38 of 72, medium confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.2 points on average, against 4.1 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 59% of races.
Historically, Trafalgar Group's misses leaned R+3 on average. In 2026 its polls have been 1.3 points more Republican than other polls of the same races. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
13 polls in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate, Kansas Senate, Michigan Senate, New Hampshire Senate, South Carolina Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.