Even: Marist and Trafalgar split the 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Marist | Trafalgar |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 61/100 ★ | 48/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.8 pts | 4.2 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.7 pts | ±3.4 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | R+3 |
| Winners called | 80% ★ | 59% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 130 polls | 98 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+3.1 | R+1.3 ★ |
| Race | Marist (latest) | Trafalgar (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 51, Husted 43 (D+5.1 vs. avg) | Brown 45, Husted 42 (R+1.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (D+3.4 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (R+2.4 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 50, Hinson 42 (D+8.1 vs. avg) | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Marist College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · Emerson College vs. Marist College · Trafalgar Group vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Marist College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Trafalgar Group · Marist College vs. New York Times/Siena College
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 4.8 pts). Overall, even: Marist and Trafalgar split the 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Marist: B+, Trust Score 61; Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Marist (D+3.1). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Michigan Senate, Texas Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.