NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Marist | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 61/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.8 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.7 pts | ±3.9 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 80% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 130 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+3.1 | R+1 ★ |
| Race | Marist (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 51, Husted 43 (D+5.1 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 44 (D+2.8 vs. avg) | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (D+3.4 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 53, James 41 (D+4.9 vs. avg) | Benson 48, James 43 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 50, Hinson 42 (D+8.1 vs. avg) | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 54, Lahn 42 (D+6.8 vs. avg) | Sand 52, Lahn 41 (D+3.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Marist College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Marist College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Marist College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.8 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Marist: B+, Trust Score 61; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Marist (D+3.1). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 8 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Ohio Governor, Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.