NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | InsiderAdvantage | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 28/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.6 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.3 worse | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.6 pts | ±3.9 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.3 ★ | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 62% | 69% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 94 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 14 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.8 ★ | R+1 |
| Race | InsiderAdvantage (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 44, Husted 43 (R+2.7 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 46 (R+2.3 vs. avg) | Jackson 46, Collins 49 (R+6.4 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+0.3 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 48, Whatley 43 (R+4.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 48, Sununu 40 (D+5 vs. avg) | Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.6 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.6 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (InsiderAdvantage: C, Trust Score 28; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
Yes: 7 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Iowa Senate, Maine Senate, Michigan Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.