Florida · Governor · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Florida Governor: Jolly vs. Donalds

Donalds leads by 3.0 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans GOP.

Jolly (D)44.7%
Donalds (R)47.8%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
Jolly 31%69% Donalds
Open in CrosstabGet alerts for this race

Polling average over time

364452 45.3% 49.0% Aug 5, 2026Nov 2, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateJollyDonalds
Research Co.Nov 2, 20264448
ActiVoteOct 31, 20264852
RedBox ResearchOct 31, 20264647
Stetson UniversityOct 30, 20264551
Big Data PollOct 30, 20264447
InsiderAdvantageOct 29, 20264549
Political Matrix/The Listener GroupOct 28, 20263940
St. Pete PollsOct 27, 20264648
NY Times/SienaOct 25, 20264448
RedBox ResearchOct 23, 20264449
Echelon InsightsOct 23, 20264450
Workbench StrategyOct 22, 20264846
co/efficientOct 20, 20264049
ActiVoteOct 19, 20264852
University of North FloridaOct 19, 20264749
Univision/YouGovOct 15, 20264250
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesOct 11, 20264349
Change ResearchOct 10, 20264747
MDW CommunicationsOct 10, 20264447
Stetson UniversityOct 9, 20264152
St. Pete PollsOct 7, 20264545
YouGovOct 5, 20264547
James Madison InstituteOct 4, 20264252
Targoz Market ResearchOct 4, 20264252
Mason-DixonOct 1, 20264148
Change ResearchSep 28, 20264847
Stetson UniversitySep 24, 20263951
St. Pete PollsSep 19, 20264344
Change ResearchSep 9, 20264744
Hart Research AssociatesAug 13, 20264645
Targoz Market ResearchJul 26, 20263845
University of North FloridaJul 17, 20264146
Change ResearchJul 11, 20263737
Change ResearchMay 16, 20264642
Cherry CommunicationsMay 9, 20263947
Stetson UniversityApr 13, 20264047
Echelon InsightsApr 9, 20264349
MDW CommunicationsApr 3, 20264141
EmersonMar 31, 20263944
University of North FloridaMar 2, 20263642
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 16, 20263641
University of North FloridaOct 25, 20253445
Targoz Market ResearchSep 18, 20253236
Bendixen & Amandi InternationalSep 9, 20254140
AIF CenterAug 27, 20254149
Victory InsightsJun 10, 20253137

The candidates

David W. Jolly
Democrat · Former U.S. Representative from Florida (2014–2017)

David Wilson Jolly is an American lawyer and politician who was the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. Jolly served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican. After leaving office, he became…

Talks about: Insurance Reform, Healthcare, Public Schools, Data Centers, Reproductive Rights
Byron Donalds
Republican · U.S. Representative, FL-19, since 2021

Byron Lowell Donalds is an American politician who is the governor-elect of Florida. Donalds has served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021. His congressional district includes much of Southwest Florida. From 2016 to 2020, he served in …

Talks about: Insurance Costs, Property Taxes, Healthcare Pricing, Insurance Approvals, Business Permitting

Updated Nov 3, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.

More on Florida

All Florida 2026 races · David W. Jolly · Byron Donalds · Every governor race

Questions people ask

Who is winning the Florida governor's race?

Donalds leads by 3.0 points in the Crosstab average of 8 recent polls (Jolly vs. Donalds). Crosstab's forecast gives Donalds a 69% chance to win.

When is the Florida governor's election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Who is running for Florida governor in 2026?

Jolly (D), Donalds (R).