NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts | ±3.9 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 69% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1 |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 49 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 52 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 (D+2.2 vs. avg) | Sand 52, Lahn 41 (D+3.6 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Benson 48, James 43 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 (D+5.3 vs. avg) | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 48, Collins 46 (R+1.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 46, Collins 49 (R+6.4 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 50 (R+3.7 vs. avg) | Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 53, Whatley 44 (D+2.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos vs. New York Times/Siena College
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.4 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 10 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.