Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 ★ | D+2.5 |
| Winners called | 67% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 | D+0.5 ★ |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | UNH (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate | Jackson 48, Collins 46 (R+1.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 51, Collins 47 (D+1.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. has the smaller average error (4.4 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
Yes: 1 race in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.