NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 5 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 0.1 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts ★ | ±4.8 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 | D+1.3 |
| Winners called | 69% | 87% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 ★ | D+1.4 |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | YouGov (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.8 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 45, Abbott 49 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 52, Lahn 41 (D+3.6 vs. avg) | Sand 50, Lahn 39 (D+7 vs. avg) |
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 49 (R+6.4 vs. avg) | Jackson 50, Collins 50 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Maine Governor | Pingree 47, Charles 34 (D+2.3 vs. avg) | Pingree 47, Charles 36 |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 43 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) | Cooper 53, Whatley 41 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 5 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with YouGov (D+1.4). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 7 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Governor, Iowa Governor, Maine Senate, Maine Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.