Trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Trafalgar | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 48/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.2 pts ★ | 5 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.1 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.4 pts ★ | ±4.8 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 59% | 87% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 98 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.3 ★ | D+1.4 |
| Race | Trafalgar (latest) | YouGov (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 46 (R+1.1 vs. avg) | Jackson 50, Collins 50 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 42, Hinson 44 (R+2.3 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 43 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (R+2.4 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 49, Collins 43 (R+1.4 vs. avg) | Ossoff 52, Collins 42 (D+2.6 vs. avg) |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (R+2.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 53, Whatley 41 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 5 pts). Overall, trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with YouGov (D+1.4). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 5 races in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Senate, Georgia Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.