Trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Trafalgar | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 48/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.2 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.4 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3 | D+2.5 ★ |
| Winners called | 59% | 82% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 98 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1.3 | D+0.5 ★ |
| Race | Trafalgar (latest) | UNH (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate | Jackson 46, Collins 46 (R+1.1 vs. avg) | Jackson 51, Collins 47 (D+1.5 vs. avg) |
| New Hampshire Senate | Pappas 47, Sununu 41 (even vs. avg) | Pappas 50, Sununu 42 (D+3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. Trafalgar Group · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Trafalgar has the smaller average error (4.2 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, trafalgar comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trafalgar: B-, Trust Score 48; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
Trafalgar (R+1.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with UNH (D+0.5). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including Maine Senate, New Hampshire Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.