Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | Marist |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 | 61/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts ★ | 4.8 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better ★ | 0.1 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts ★ | ±4.7 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 | D+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 67% | 80% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 130 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | D+3.1 |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | Marist (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 49 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (D+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Turek 50, Hinson 42 (D+8.1 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 52 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 (D+2.2 vs. avg) | Sand 54, Lahn 42 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (D+3.4 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Benson 53, James 41 (D+4.9 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Senate | Brown 53, Husted 45 (D+5.3 vs. avg) | Brown 51, Husted 43 (D+5.1 vs. avg) |
| Ohio Governor | Acton 48, Ramaswamy 50 (R+3.7 vs. avg) | Acton 50, Ramaswamy 44 (D+2.8 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Marist College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Marist College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Marist College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · Marist College vs. New York Times/Siena College
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. has the smaller average error (4.4 pts vs. 4.8 pts). Overall, beacon Research/Shaw & Co. comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; Marist: B+, Trust Score 61).
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (D+0.8 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Marist (D+3.1). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 8 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.