Emerson comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 85/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 4.3 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 0.6 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±4.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | D+0.4 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% | 76% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 211 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1.5 |
| Race | Change (latest) | Emerson (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor | Jolly 48, Donalds 47 (D+8 vs. avg) | Jolly 39, Donalds 44 (D+0.7 vs. avg) |
| Florida Senate | Moody 48, Nixon 47 | Moody 47, Nixon 36 |
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 47, Whatley 41 |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 45, Hinson 50 (R+6.4 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Emerson College vs. Rasmussen Reports · Emerson College vs. Ipsos · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage
Emerson has the smaller average error (4.3 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, emerson comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; Emerson: A+, Trust Score 85).
Emerson (R+1.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Change (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Florida Governor, Florida Senate, North Carolina Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.