NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Change | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 33/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.6 pts | 4.1 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.7 worse | 0.8 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.5 pts | ±3.9 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+3.2 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 71% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 102 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 ★ | R+1 |
| Race | Change (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Senate | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (R+5.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 41, Hinson 44 | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Change Research vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Change Research vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Change Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 5.6 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Change: C+, Trust Score 33; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Change (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including North Carolina Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.