Minnesota · Senate · Election Day Nov 3, 2026

Minnesota Senate: Flanagan vs. Tafoya

Flanagan leads by 2.8 points in the Crosstab average of recent polls. Crosstab rates it Leans Dem.

Flanagan (D)48.0%
Tafoya (R)45.2%
Chance of winning · Crosstab forecast
Flanagan 61%39% Tafoya
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Polling average over time

394550 47.3% 44.2% Aug 17, 2026Nov 1, 2026
Crosstab average of each day's latest polls (up to six from the past 45 days).

Every poll

PollsterDateFlanaganTafoya
AtlasIntelNov 1, 20264846
InsiderAdvantageOct 30, 20264946
SurveyUSAOct 12, 20264542
GQROct 4, 20265042
Big Data PollSep 30, 20264644
InsiderAdvantageSep 29, 20264645
KSTP/SurveyUSASep 16, 20264242
Quantus InsightsSep 10, 202648.244.4
SurveyUSAAug 17, 20264641

The candidates

Peggy Flanagan
Democrat

Margaret Ann Hartmann Flanagan is an American politician and Ojibwe activist who is the United States senator-elect from Minnesota. She has served since 2019 as the 50th lieutenant governor of Minnesota. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), Flanagan serv…

Talks about: Healthcare, Minimum wage, Reproductive rights, Immigration, Gun control
Tafoya
Republican

Updated Nov 3, 2026. How Crosstab calculates averages and odds.

More on Minnesota

All Minnesota 2026 races · Peggy Flanagan · Senate forecast

Questions people ask

Who is winning the Minnesota Senate race?

Flanagan leads by 2.8 points in the Crosstab average of 5 recent polls (Flanagan vs. Tafoya). Crosstab's forecast gives Flanagan a 61% chance to win.

When is the Minnesota Senate election?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Who is running for Minnesota Senate in 2026?

Flanagan (D), Tafoya (R).