Trust Score 82/100, rank #4 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 100% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #2–14). Gold standard.
| Trust Score percentile | 94th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 79th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±4.2 pts |
| Method | IVR |
| Transparency score | 10/10 |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 17 | 3.4 | R+1.3 |
| 2000 | 65 | 5.3 | R+3 |
| 2001 | 2 | 0.8 | even |
| 2002 | 76 | 5.2 | D+3.7 |
| 2003 | 8 | 4.3 | D+3.6 |
| 2004 | 133 | 3.6 | even |
| 2005 | 3 | 2.2 | R+2.2 |
| 2006 | 93 | 4.1 | R+1 |
| 2007 | 4 | 3.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2008 | 111 | 3.8 | R+0.5 |
| 2009 | 8 | 1.4 | D+0.8 |
| 2010 | 50 | 4.8 | R+1.9 |
| 2011 | 1 | 4.6 | D+4.6 |
| 2012 | 39 | 3.2 | R+2.6 |
| 2014 | 29 | 6.4 | D+5.5 |
| 2015 | 1 | 13.7 | D+13.7 |
| 2016 | 16 | 4.6 | D+0.5 |
| 2017 | 1 | 3.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2018 | 12 | 4.8 | R+1.4 |
| 2020 | 17 | 4.6 | D+2.4 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2.6 | even |
4 polls this cycle.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 | Minnesota Senate | Flanagan 42, Tafoya 42 | R+4.2 |
| 09-16 | Minnesota Governor | Klobuchar 47, Demuth 40 | D+0.5 |
| 08-17 | Minnesota Senate | Flanagan 46, Tafoya 41 | |
| 08-17 | Minnesota Governor | Klobuchar 52, Demuth 36 |
States polled: Minnesota.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open SurveyUSA in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
SurveyUSA is rated A in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 82 of 100, rank 4 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 4.2 points on average, against 5.1 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 87% of races.
Historically, SurveyUSA's misses leaned even on average. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
4 polls in Crosstab's data, including Minnesota Senate, Minnesota Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.