Even: NYT/Siena and SurveyUSA split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | SurveyUSA |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 82/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 4.2 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better | 0.9 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts ★ | ±4.2 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 | Even ★ |
| Winners called | 69% | 87% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 698 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 4 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 | — |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · SurveyUSA vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. SurveyUSA · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · SurveyUSA vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 4.2 pts). Overall, even: NYT/Siena and SurveyUSA split the 6 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; SurveyUSA: A, Trust Score 82).
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.