Trust Score 76/100, rank #8 of 72 (high confidence; grade held in 100% of 400 resamples, plausible rank #4–14). Gold standard · Consistent D tilt.
| Trust Score percentile | 89th (median 49) |
| Accuracy versus expected | 89th percentile |
| Random miss (consistency) | ±3.3 pts |
| Method | Live Phone |
| Transparency score | 5/10 |
| Cycle | Polls | Avg error | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | 6 | D+6 |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.3 | D+5.3 |
| 2018 | 9 | 2.5 | D+1.9 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2020 | 7 | 6.9 | D+6.9 |
| 2021 | 1 | 1.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2022 | 18 | 3.2 | D+0.5 |
11 polls this cycle; its polls have been close to even with other polls (raw gap R+0.5, adjusted for its 7 polls); spread 0.57× what its sample sizes predict.
| Date | Poll | Result | vs. other polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 | Alaska Governor | Kreiss-Tomkins 44, Wilson 24 | |
| 09-21 | Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 | D+3.5 |
| 09-21 | Michigan Governor | Benson 45, James 38 | D+0.5 |
| 09-15 | Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 | R+1.3 |
| 09-15 | Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 44 | R+2.1 |
| 09-10 | Generic ballot | Democrats 51, Republicans 42 | |
| 08-14 | Generic ballot | Democrats 49, Republicans 42 | |
| 07-31 | Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 | D+0.9 |
| 06-19 | Iowa Senate | Turek 44, Hinson 46 | R+3.2 |
| 06-19 | Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 43 | |
| 05-17 | Georgia Senate | Ossoff 46, Collins 43 | R+2 |
States polled: Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Texas.
YouGov · Emerson College · University of New Hampshire Survey Center · The New York Times/Siena College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Rasmussen Reports · Ipsos · InsiderAdvantage
Open Cygnal in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
Cygnal is rated A in the Crosstab Trust Index (Trust Score 76 of 100, rank 8 of 72, high confidence). Its final polls missed the actual margin by 3.8 points on average, against 5.3 expected for the races it polled, and it called the winner in 92% of races.
Historically, Cygnal's misses leaned D+2.4 on average. In 2026 its polls have been close to even with other polls. Lean describes how its numbers compare; it isn't an accusation of bias.
11 polls in Crosstab's data, including Alaska Governor, Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor, Iowa Senate, Iowa Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.