Cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | InsiderAdvantage |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 28/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 4.6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.3 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±4.6 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | D+0.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 62% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 94 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 14 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 ★ | R+0.8 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | InsiderAdvantage (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) | Turek 47, Hinson 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 46, Collins 43 (R+2 vs. avg) | Ossoff 50, Collins 42 (R+0.7 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. New York Times/Siena College · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.6 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; InsiderAdvantage: C, Trust Score 28).
InsiderAdvantage (R+0.8 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Cygnal (R+0.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 3 races in Crosstab's data, including Michigan Senate, Iowa Senate, Georgia Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.