Cygnal comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | NYT/Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 | 84/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 4.1 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.8 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±3.9 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 69% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 92 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 23 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 ★ | R+1 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | NYT/Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor | Kreiss-Tomkins 44, Wilson 24 | Kreiss-Tomkins 52, Wilson 48 |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (D+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 45, James 38 (D+0.5 vs. avg) | Benson 48, James 43 (R+3.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 44 (R+2.1 vs. avg) | Sand 52, Lahn 41 (D+3.6 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (D+0.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (D+6.8 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.1 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Cygnal (R+0.3). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 6 races in Crosstab's data, including Alaska Governor, Michigan Senate, Michigan Governor, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.