Cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Cygnal | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 76/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 3.8 pts ★ | 5 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 1.5 better ★ | 0.1 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.3 pts ★ | ±4.8 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.4 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 92% ★ | 87% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 39 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.3 ★ | D+1.4 |
| Race | Cygnal (latest) | YouGov (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 43 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 48, Lahn 44 (R+2.1 vs. avg) | Sand 50, Lahn 39 (D+7 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (D+0.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 45, Abbott 49 (R+1.1 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 46, Collins 43 (R+2 vs. avg) | Ossoff 52, Collins 42 (D+2.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 5 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
Cygnal (R+0.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with YouGov (D+1.4). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Iowa Senate, Iowa Governor, Texas Governor, Georgia Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.