Cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. | Cygnal |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 59/100 | 76/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.4 pts | 3.8 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0 better | 1.5 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4 pts | ±3.3 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+2.2 ★ | D+2.4 |
| Winners called | 67% | 92% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 42 polls | 39 polls |
| 2026 polls | 21 | 11 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+0.8 | R+0.3 ★ |
| Race | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (latest) | Cygnal (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Turek 49, Hinson 47 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Turek 43, Hinson 43 (R+1.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Governor | Hinojosa 47, Abbott 52 (R+1.9 vs. avg) | Hinojosa 46, Abbott 49 (D+0.9 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Governor | Sand 53, Lahn 44 (D+2.2 vs. avg) | Sand 48, Lahn 44 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Senate | El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 (R+3.6 vs. avg) | El-Sayed 45, Rogers 40 (D+3.5 vs. avg) |
| Michigan Governor | Benson 54, James 45 (D+0.6 vs. avg) | Benson 45, James 38 (D+0.5 vs. avg) |
| Georgia Senate | Ossoff 56, Collins 43 (D+6.4 vs. avg) | Ossoff 46, Collins 43 (R+2 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Cygnal vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. Emerson College · Cygnal vs. Emerson College · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Cygnal vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · Cygnal vs. New York Times/Siena College
Cygnal has the smaller average error (3.8 pts vs. 4.4 pts). Overall, cygnal comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.: B, Trust Score 59; Cygnal: A, Trust Score 76).
Cygnal (R+0.3 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. (D+0.8). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 6 races in Crosstab's data, including Iowa Senate, Texas Governor, Iowa Governor, Michigan Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.