InsiderAdvantage comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | InsiderAdvantage | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 28/100 | 67/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.6 pts ★ | 5.7 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.3 worse | 0.2 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.6 pts ★ | ±5.1 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.3 ★ | R+3.2 |
| Winners called | 62% | 89% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 94 polls | 57 polls |
| 2026 polls | 14 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+0.8 ★ | D+2.7 |
| Race | InsiderAdvantage (latest) | Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 44, Husted 43 (R+2.7 vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+2.6 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.6 vs. avg) | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (D+4.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. InsiderAdvantage · Emerson College vs. Siena College · InsiderAdvantage vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · InsiderAdvantage vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Siena College
InsiderAdvantage has the smaller average error (4.6 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, insiderAdvantage comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (InsiderAdvantage: C, Trust Score 28; Siena: A-, Trust Score 67).
InsiderAdvantage (R+0.8 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 3 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Iowa Senate, Texas Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.