NYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | NYT/Siena | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 84/100 ★ | 67/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.1 pts ★ | 5.7 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.8 better ★ | 0.2 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±3.9 pts ★ | ±5.1 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+1.3 ★ | R+3.2 |
| Winners called | 69% | 89% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 92 polls | 57 polls |
| 2026 polls | 23 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | R+1 ★ | D+2.7 |
| Race | NYT/Siena (latest) | Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 47, Husted 50 (R+7.6 vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 47, Paxton 47 (even vs. avg) | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (D+4.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 46, Hinson 48 (R+3.5 vs. avg) | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+2.6 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. New York Times/Siena College · Emerson College vs. Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. New York Times/Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. Rasmussen Reports
NYT/Siena has the smaller average error (4.1 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, nYT/Siena comes out ahead on 6 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (NYT/Siena: A+, Trust Score 84; Siena: A-, Trust Score 67).
NYT/Siena (R+1 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 3 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Texas Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.