YouGov comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Siena | YouGov |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 67/100 ★ | 44/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.7 pts | 5 pts ★ |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.2 better ★ | 0.1 better |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±5.1 pts | ±4.8 pts ★ |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3.2 | D+1.3 ★ |
| Winners called | 89% ★ | 87% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 57 polls | 481 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 42 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+2.7 | D+1.4 ★ |
| Race | Siena (latest) | YouGov (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (D+4.6 vs. avg) | Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (R+2.1 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+2.6 vs. avg) | Turek 44, Hinson 43 (D+0.3 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Emerson College vs. YouGov · University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · New York Times/Siena College vs. YouGov · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. YouGov · Rasmussen Reports vs. YouGov · Ipsos vs. YouGov · InsiderAdvantage vs. YouGov · Trafalgar Group vs. YouGov
YouGov has the smaller average error (5 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, youGov comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Siena: A-, Trust Score 67; YouGov: B-, Trust Score 44).
YouGov (D+1.4 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Yes: 2 races in Crosstab's data, including Texas Senate, Iowa Senate.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.