Siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Siena | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 67/100 ★ | 16/100 |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 5.7 pts ★ | 6 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.2 better ★ | 0.8 worse |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±5.1 pts ★ | ±5.5 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | R+3.2 | D+2.5 ★ |
| Winners called | 89% ★ | 82% |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 57 polls | 116 polls |
| 2026 polls | 13 | 31 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+2.7 | D+0.5 ★ |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: University of New Hampshire Survey Center vs. YouGov · Siena College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Emerson College vs. Siena College · New York Times/Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Rasmussen Reports vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Ipsos vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Siena has the smaller average error (5.7 pts vs. 6 pts). Overall, siena comes out ahead on 5 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Siena: A-, Trust Score 67; UNH: D, Trust Score 16).
UNH (D+0.5 versus other polls of the same races) compared with Siena (D+2.7). Lean describes how a pollster's numbers compare with others; it isn't a measure of accuracy.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.