Siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index, which grades pollsters on how close their final polls came to actual results from 1998 to 2022.
| Measure | Marist | Siena |
|---|---|---|
| Trust Score | 61/100 | 67/100 ★ |
| Average error how far final polls missed the result | 4.8 pts ★ | 5.7 pts |
| Versus expected error compared with what its races predicted | 0.1 worse | 0.2 better ★ |
| Consistency random miss once its tilt is removed | ±4.7 pts ★ | ±5.1 pts |
| Historical bias closer to even is better | D+0.4 ★ | R+3.2 |
| Winners called | 80% | 89% ★ |
| Track record final polls analyzed, 1998–2022 | 130 polls | 57 polls |
| 2026 polls | 11 | 13 |
| 2026 lean versus other polls of the same races | D+3.1 | D+2.7 ★ |
| Race | Marist (latest) | Siena (latest) |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Senate | Brown 51, Husted 43 (D+5.1 vs. avg) | Brown 49, Husted 46 (R+0.3 vs. avg) |
| Texas Senate | Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (D+3.5 vs. avg) | Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (D+4.6 vs. avg) |
| Iowa Senate | Turek 50, Hinson 42 (D+8.1 vs. avg) | Turek 47, Hinson 48 (R+2.6 vs. avg) |
| New York Governor | Hochul 50, Blakeman 33 (R+0.9 vs. avg) | Hochul 50, Blakeman 41 (R+6.5 vs. avg) |
Compare them in the interactive Trust Index All pollster ratings
More comparisons: Siena College vs. YouGov · Marist College vs. YouGov · Emerson College vs. Siena College · Emerson College vs. Marist College · Siena College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · Marist College vs. University of New Hampshire Survey Center · New York Times/Siena College vs. Siena College · Marist College vs. New York Times/Siena College
Marist has the smaller average error (4.8 pts vs. 5.7 pts). Overall, siena comes out ahead on 4 of 7 measures in the Crosstab Trust Index (Marist: B+, Trust Score 61; Siena: A-, Trust Score 67).
Yes: 4 races in Crosstab's data, including Ohio Senate, Texas Senate, Iowa Senate, New York Governor.
Grades: Crosstab Trust Index, computed from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings data (CC BY 4.0), 1998–2022; 2026 measures from Crosstab's polling data.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.