The rating comes from the Crosstab House forecast, which combines the national environment from generic-ballot polling with each district's political lean. Explore the House map.
TX-01 (Safe Republican) · TX-02 (Safe Republican) · TX-03 (Safe Republican) · TX-04 (Safe Republican) · TX-05 (Safe Republican) · TX-06 (Safe Republican) · TX-07 (Safe Democratic) · TX-08 (Safe Republican) · TX-09 (Likely Republican) · TX-10 (Safe Republican) · TX-11 (Safe Republican) · TX-12 (Safe Republican) · TX-13 (Safe Republican) · TX-14 (Safe Republican) · TX-15 (Likely Republican) · TX-16 (Safe Democratic) · TX-17 (Safe Republican) · TX-18 (Safe Democratic) · TX-19 (Safe Republican) · TX-20 (Safe Democratic) · TX-22 (Safe Republican) · TX-23 (Leans Republican) · TX-24 (Leans Republican) · TX-25 (Safe Republican) · TX-26 (Safe Republican) · TX-27 (Likely Republican) · TX-28 (Toss-up) · TX-29 (Safe Democratic) · TX-30 (Safe Democratic) · TX-31 (Safe Republican) · TX-32 (Likely Republican) · TX-33 (Safe Democratic) · TX-34 (Toss-up) · TX-35 (Toss-up) · TX-36 (Safe Republican) · TX-37 (Safe Democratic) · TX-38 (Likely Republican)
Crosstab rates Texas's 21st District Safe Republican: Democrats have a 4% chance of winning it, and the forecast projects Republicans ahead by 11.8 points.
Chip Roy (Republican) is the incumbent.
Updated 2026-10-04 · Crosstab, nonpartisan polling analysis.